Argent Logistics · annual 2026
Live model updated 27 May 2026 · 82 sources cited
Executive briefing
The system is already working; the first screen is the operating surface, not setup.
Nous now treats the largest customer as a board-level exposure rather than a watchlist item.
Estimated impact: $18.4M working-capital draw if the notice is exercised without replacement volume.
Confidence: 82%, based on uploaded books, contract language, and external concentration comps.
Watching next: Q3 volume lock, renewal language, and customer filing updates.
Model coverage
Largest customer can walk on 90 days notice while concentration moved from 14% to 22% over 24 months.
US-MX rail bridge capacity tightened as spot rates reset and bonded-warehouse delays extended by 9 days.
A 3.5x leverage covenant appears in the Series B amendment but not in the uploaded banking summary.
Risk register
Rows carry the SaaS operating detail: state, exposure, movement, evidence, owner, and next action.
| Risk | State | Exposure | Latest signal | Owner | Next action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Top-customer cliff R-01 · Revenue concentration | Material Change | $18.4M | Largest customer can walk on 90 days notice while concentration moved from 14% to 22% over 24 months. | CFO | Confirm renewal posture |
| Corridor capacity R-02 · Logistics | Action Recommended | $9.2M | US-MX rail bridge capacity tightened as spot rates reset and bonded-warehouse delays extended by 9 days. | Head of Risk | Route scenario memo |
| Undisclosed covenant R-03 · Financing | Needs Review | 2.1x | A 3.5x leverage covenant appears in the Series B amendment but not in the uploaded banking summary. | Treasury | Upload lender waiver |
| FX MXN unhedged R-04 · FX | Moving | $3.6M | Seventy percent of MXN exposure remains unhedged while 90-day pay cycle sensitivity widened. | Treasury | Watch through month close |
| Pallet-rail vendor R-05 · Supplier | Stable | $2.8M | Single-source pallet stock remains unchanged; switching would still take more than 6 months. | Operations | Keep on watchlist |
Task flow
Input moments use the same austere brand system but shift density toward a guided Typeform-style prompt.
Human correction needed
The answer determines whether the customer cliff is immediate working-capital risk or a renewal-cycle exposure.
Assign the person closest to the exposure.
Risk desk report
Report surfaces read like an institutional note: formal, sparse, and board-ready.
Monthly risk report · May 2026